I derive the imperfect-common-knowledge Phillips curve under the assumption of Rotemberg pricing. The curve differs from the Calvo version in one important aspect. Expectations of future relative prices impact in ation.

We study optimal monetary policy in an analytically tractable New Key-nesian DSGE-model with an emission externality. Empirically, emissions are strongly pro-cyclical and output in the flexible price equilibrium overreacts to productivity shocks, relative to the efficient allocation. At the same...

Those of professional forecasters do. For a wide range of time series models for the euro area and its member states we find a higher average forecast accuracy of models that incorporate information on inflation expectations from the ECB’s SPF and Consensus Economics compared to their...

We show that if business cycles are driven by financial shocks, the interplay between the effective lower bound (ELB) and the costs of external financing can generate an additional supply-side channel, which causes a disconnect between inflation and output. In normal times, factor costs dominate...

This paper proposes a tractable financial accelerator New Keynesian DSGE modelthat allows for closed-form solutions. In the presence of financial frictions, theNew Keynesian Phillips curve features a flat slope with respect to the output gapand is strongly forward-looking. All shocks cause...

This paper contrasts empirically four leading models of inflation dynamics - the accelerationist Phillips curve (APC), the new Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC), the hybrid Phillips curve (HPC), and the sticky information Phillips curve (SIPC). We employ an encompassing Phillips curve...

This paper contrasts empirically four leading models of inflation dynamics - the accelerationist Phillips curve (APC), new Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC), hybrid Phillips curve (HPC) and sticky information Phillips curve (SIPC). We employ an encompassing Phillips curve specification that allows...

In recent years UK real wages have been growing faster than labour factor productivity, implying that the labour share has been rising. This paper looks at various definitions of the labour share and derives a measure for the UK, which appears positively correlated with the growth rate of the UK...