We study the impact of market incompleteness and bounded rationality on the effectiveness of make-up strategies. To do so, we simulate a heterogeneous-agent New Keynesian (HANK) model with reflective expectations and an occasionally-binding effective lower bound (ELB) on the policy rate. Our...

The COVID-19 pandemic has led to enormous data movements that strongly affect parameters and forecasts from standard VARs. To address these issues, we propose VAR models with outlier-augmented stochastic volatility (SV) that combine transitory and persistent changes in volatility. The resulting...

In recent years, there has been a controversial debate on how the rapid diffusion of digital technologies affects labour productivity in advanced economies. Using a multi-sector dynamic general equilibrium model, we show that cumulative labour productivity growth in the United States, Germany...

Macroeconomic expectations of various economic agents are characterized by substantial cross-sectional heterogeneity. In this paper, we focus on expectations heterogeneity among professional forecasters. We first present stylized facts and discuss theoretical explanations for heterogeneous...

We show the importance of emission disclosure for climate policies in a DSGE model for the euro area. A low-carbon energy and a fossil energy sector contribute to production and are financed by balance-sheet constrained intermediaries. The underestimation of emissions from fossil energy firms...

VARs are a popular tool for forecasting and structural analysis, but ill-suited to handle occasionally binding constraints, like the effective lower bound on nominal interest rates. We extend the VAR framework by modeling interest rates as censored observations of a latent shadow-rate process,...

In the paper we simulate a revenue-neutral cut in the social security contribution rate using five different types of macro- / microeconomic models, namely two models based on time-series data where the labour market is modelled basically demand oriented, two models of the class of computable...

Japan's economy is expanding and expected to continue expanding moderately, according to Monthly Report of Recent Economic and Financial Developments released by the Bank of Japan in July 2007.The BOJ declared the change of policy stance at the Monetary Policy Meeting held on July 14, 2006. The...

This study identifies empirically the impact of various macroeconomic factors on the default risk premium. Using monthly data for the period 1970-2010 for the U.S., our estimations indicate that the monetary policy aggregates, risk-free interest rate, term structure of interest rates, inflation,...

The dynamics of the US economy are modelled using a time-varying structural vector autoregression that incorporates information from the yield curve. We find important changes in the dynamics of macroeconomic variables such as inflation and the federal funds rate. In addition our results suggest...