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the nature of the task at the second date further shows that learning is unencumbered by a change in environment. Our …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011976128
The recent crisis in the United States has often been associated with substantial amounts of policy uncertainty. In this paper we ask how uncertainty about fiscal policy affects the impact of fiscal policy changes on the economy when the government tries to counteract a deep recession. The...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010211956
disagreement regardless of cognitive ability. Learning about the state of the world has little effect on the evolution of perceived …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014477417
Survey data on inflation expectations show that: (i) private sector forecasts and central bank forecasts are not fully aligned and (ii) private sector forecasters disagree about inflation expectations. To reconcile these two facts we introduce dispersed information in a New Keynesian model,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011520661
What happens when fiscal and/or monetary policy changes systematically? We construct a DSGE model in which agents have to estimate fiscal and monetary policy rules and assess how uncertainty surrounding the conduct of policymakers influences transition paths after policy changes. We find that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011292321
We study the inference and experimentation problem of an agent in a situation where the outcomes depend on the individual's intrinsic ability and on an external variable. We analyze the mistakes made by decision-makers who hold inaccurate prior beliefs about their ability. Overconfident...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011930663
ability. We study experimentally to what extent cross-game learning can reduce overbidding in SPAs, taking into account …-game learning for cognitively less able participants but does not affect overbidding for the cognitively more able. Vice versa …, 'cross-game learning' may rather be understood as 'cross-game transfer', as it has the potential to benefit bidders with …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014476711
Many individuals have empathetic feelings towards animals but frequently consume meat. We investigate this "meat paradox" using insights from the literature on motivated reasoning in moral dilemmata. We develop a model where individuals form self-serving beliefs about the suffering of animals...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012034136
This paper develops a theory in which heterogeneity in political preferences produces a partisan disagreement about … voters' intrinsic preferences or because of rigidities in the political process. The theory predicts that providing mixed …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011899691
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012820695