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The equity premium follows a pronounced v-shape pattern around the beginning of recessions. It sharply drops into negative territory just before business cycle peaks and then strongly recovers as the recession unfolds. Recessions are preceded by an inverted yield curve. Thus probit models using...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012607106
This paper studies high-frequency econometric methods to test for a jump in the spread of bond yields. We propose a coherent inference procedure that detects a jump in the yield spread only if at least one of the two underlying bonds displays a jump. Ignoring this inherent connection by basing...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014343097
This paper develops high-frequency econometric methods to test for jumps in the spread of bond yields. We derive a coherent inference procedure that detects a jump in the yield spread only if at least one of the two underlying bonds displays a jump. We formalize the test as a sequential...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012655372
Institutional funds have concentrated ownership by a few institutional investors, infrequent outflows and essentially no leverage. Yet using unique granular data on the bond holdings of institutional funds, we show that their trading behavior is strongly procyclical: they actively move into...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012250652
High nonresponse rates have become a rule in survey sampling. In panel surveys there occur additional sample losses due … to panel attrition, which are thought to worsen the bias resulting from initial nonresponse. However, under certain … conditions an initial wave nonresponse bias may vanish in later panel waves. We study such a "Fade away" of an initial …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013494126
The beta dispersion, which is the spread of betas on a stock market, can be interpreted as a measure of market vulnerability. This study examines the economic idea of the beta dispersion and its application as a market return predictor. Based on the empirical beta dispersion observed in the US...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012264452
Among a variety of small area estimation methods, one popular approach for the estimation of linear and non …-linear indicators is the empirical best predictor. However, parameter estimation using standard maximum likelihood methods is not … is often the case for income variables. Therefore, this work proposes an estimation method, which enables the estimation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011703587
This paper provides new empirical insights on the elasticity of taxable income for Germany. Using a rich panel of …. Showing and discussing potential estimation problems of the most prominent model in the literature by Gruber and Saez (2002 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010473165
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015333912
This paper evaluates the profitability of applying four different volatility forecasting models to the trading of straddles on the German stock market index DAX. Special care has been taken to use simultaneous intra-day prices and realistic transaction costs. Furthermore, straddle positions were...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011622744