forecasts has weak predictive power for actual returns, but is a less precise forecast than a simple average of historical stock …

market experts’ stock return forecasts has weak predictive power for actual returns, but is a less precise forecast than a …

bank’s own interest rate expectations. From a theoretical point of view, the latter should yield the highest forecast … view, appears to be at best of minor relevance empirically. -- Forecast Accuracy ; Density Forecasts ; Projections …

Recently, several institutions have increased their forecast horizons, and many institutions rely on their past … forecast errors to estimate measures of forecast uncertainty. This work addresses the question how the latter estimation can be … accomplished if there are only very few errors available for the new forecast horizons. It extends upon the results of Knüppel …