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Could a monetary policy loosening in a low interest rate environment have unintended recessionary effects? Using a non-linear macroeconomic model fitted to the euro area economy, we show that the effectiveness of monetary policy can decline in negative territory until it reaches a turning point,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012596371
inflation and output. In normal times, factor costs dominate firms’ marginal costs and hence inflation; credit spreads and the … stick shape. This mechanism also weakens the effects of forward guidance on inflation, since such policy reduces spreads and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012792813
We assess the effects of financial shocks on inflation, and to what extent financial shocks can account for the … shocks through sign restrictions. Our main finding is that expansionary financial shocks temporarily lower inflation. This … during the latest financial crisis. We then explore the transmission channels of financial shocks relevant for inflation, and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011546785
We study the distributional consequences of housing price, bond price and equity price increases for Euro Area households using data from the Household Finance and Consumption Survey (HFCS). The capital gains from bond price and equity price increases turn out to be concentrated among relatively...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011316626
. Previous literature has highlighted the role of an economy's "structure" - such as its inflation volatility, inflation rate …, forecasts predicting how a given exchange rate movement will impact inflation at a specific point in time should take into …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011671018
Yes, indeed; at least for macroeconomic policy interaction. We examine a Neo-Classical economy and provide the conditions for policy arrangements to successfully stabilize the economy when agents have either rational or adaptive expectations. For a contemporaneous-data monetary policy rule, the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011513023
mandate of price stability in the current low-inflation, low-interest-rate scenario. This paper contributes to the existing … anchoring of inflation expectations. I carry out my analysis based on a high-frequency identification and the estimation of a … forward guidance, i.e. forecasters revise their long-run expectations upwards. Consequently, inflation increases, which …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012305860
This paper empirically investigates the role of long-term inflation expectations for the monetary transmission … mechanism. In contrast to earlier studies, we confirm that U.S. long-term inflation expectations respond significantly to a … monetary policy shock. In line with a re-anchoring channel of monetary policy, we find that long-term inflation expectations …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012311576
This paper documents a strong relationship between households’ perceptions about inflation over the past 12 months and … households’ short- and long-term expectations about future inflation. This relationship is strong during periods of high-inflation … but even stronger during low-inflation periods. We establish a causal relationship by implementing a randomized …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014320795
This paper uses a "trendy" approach to understand UK inflation dynamics. It focuses on the time series to isolate a low …-frequency and slow-moving component of inflation (the trend) from deviations around this trend. We find that this slow-moving trend … explains a substantial share of UK inflation dynamics. International prices are significantly correlated with the short …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011664348