Showing 1 - 10 of 2,055
Yes, indeed; at least for macroeconomic policy interaction. We examine a Neo-Classical economy and provide the conditions for policy arrangements to successfully stabilize the economy when agents have either rational or adaptive expectations. For a contemporaneous-data monetary policy rule, the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011513023
. Previous literature has highlighted the role of an economy's "structure" - such as its inflation volatility, inflation rate …, forecasts predicting how a given exchange rate movement will impact inflation at a specific point in time should take into …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011671018
We use a representative online survey to investigate the inflation expectations of German consumers and the credibility … of the ECB's inflation target during the recent high inflation period. We find that credibility has trended downwards … since summer 2021, reaching an all-time low in April 2022. The high correlation between inflation expectations and the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013285915
conditions and to any form of intertemporal or nominal-real links. They are easy to employ in practice, using inflation protected … bonds to infer real rates. With a time-varying inflation target, they can implement arbitrary inflation dynamics, including …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013459408
We investigate the extent to which the effect of the 2018/2019 US import tariff hikes on US (post-tariff) import prices was offset by the concurrent appreciation of the US dollar and trace the source of the appreciation back to US trade policy itself. The dollar response to trade policy...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012792730
This paper analyses the forecasting performance of monetary policy reaction functions using U.S. Federal Reserve's Greenbook real-time data. The results indicate that artificial neural networks are able to predict the nominal interest rate better than linear and nonlinearTaylor rule models as...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012256503
most important factor driving uncertainty about inflation. In contrast, variations in financial intermediaries' net worth …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011846905
The dynamic effects of ECB announcements, disentangled into pure monetary policy and central bank information shocks, on the euro (EUR) exchange rate are examined using a Bayesian Proxy Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model fed with high-frequency data. Contractionary monetary policy shocks result...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012180641
Structural VAR studies disagree with narrative accounts about the history of monetary policy disturbances. We investigate whether employing the narrative monetary shock account as a proxy variable in a VAR model aligns both shock series. We quantify the extent to which the disagreement still...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009771126
Survey data on inflation expectations show that: (i) private sector forecasts and central bank forecasts are not fully … aligned and (ii) private sector forecasters disagree about inflation expectations. To reconcile these two facts we introduce … dispersed information in a New Keynesian model, where as a result, inflation expectations differ between the private sector and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011520661