CDS spreads are often used as market's view of credit risk. There is no popular alternative to it; perhaps only the distance-to-default measure based on Merton (1974) comes close to it. In this paper we investigate the relationship between these two measures for large European banks in post...

This paper introduces a stress test of the corporate credit portfolios of 24 large German banks by a two-stage approach: First, a macro-econometric model is used to forecast the impact of a substantial increase of the user cost of business capital for firms worldwide on three particularly...

This paper studies the impact of bank regulation and taxation in a dynamic model where banks are exposed to credit and liquidity risk and can resolve financial distress in three costly forms: bond issuance, equity issuance or fire sales. We find an inverted U–shaped relationship between...

In the last decade, stress tests have become indispensable in bank risk management which has led to significantly increased requirements for stress tests for banks and regulators. Although the complexity of stress testing frameworks has been enhanced considerably over the course of the last few...

We develop a macroeconomic portfolio stress test that is specifically geared towards small and medium-sized banks. We combine a credit risk stress test which simulates credit impairments via a CreditMetrics type multi-factor portfolio model with an income stress test in the form of dynamic panel...

Our paper addresses firm size as a driver of systematic credit risk in loans to small and medium enterprises (SMEs). Key contributions are the use of a unique data set of SME lending by over 400 German banks and relating systematic risk to the size dependence of regulatory capital requirements....

In general, banks play a growth-enhancing role for the real economy. However, distorted incentives for banks, depositors, and regulators in connection with bank insolvency may corrupt banks' credit allocation and monitoring decisions, leading to suboptimal real economic outcomes. A rules-based...

We investigate financial intermediaries’ interest rate risk management as the simultaneous decision of on-balance-sheet exposure and interest rate swap use. Our findings show that both decisions are substitute risk management strategies. A higher likelihood of bank distress makes banks reduce...

Using a unique and comprehensive data set on the two largest economies of the Eurozone - France and Germany - this paper first proceeds to a computation of the Gordy formula relaxing the ad hoc sizedependent constraints of the Basel formulas. Our study contributes to Article 501 of the Capital...

The transformation of credit scores into probabilities of default plays an important role in credit risk estimation. The linear logistic regression has developed into a standard calibration approach in the banking sector. With the advent of machine learning techniques in the discriminatory phase...