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This paper analyzes the time-varying credibility of the Fed's inflation target in an empirical macro model with … across monetary policy regimes. I find that imperfect credibility is pronounced during the Volcker Disinflation and to a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013472154
Evidence on the credibility of a central bank's inflation target typically refers to the anchoring of survey …-varying credibility of the inflation target. Our results indicate that credibility has significantly decreased in our sample period … below 2% for several years, credibility has declined mainly because Germans increasingly expect that inflation will be much …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012225643
We use a representative online survey to investigate the inflation expectations of German consumers and the credibility … of the ECB's inflation target during the recent high inflation period. We find that credibility has trended downwards …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013285915
We examine how private sector agents might learn a new monetary strategy that is adopted while at the ELB. Little can be discovered until the economy improves enough that rates would be near liftoff under the old strategy. Recessionary shocks would thus delay learning while large inflationary...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014330977
citizens in January 2019 that is designed to measure long-term inflation expectations and the credibility of the inflation … target. Our results indicate that credibility has decreased in our sample period, particularly in the course of the deep … several years, credibility has declined mainly because Germans increasingly expect that inflation will be much higher than 2 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012590362
We analyze the macroeconomic implications of a transient interest-rate peg in combination with a QE program in a non-linear medium-scale DSGE model. In this context, we re-examine what has become known as the reversal puzzle (Carlstrom, Fuerst and Paustian, 2015) and provide an analytical...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011671387
What are the effects of a higher central bank inflation target on the burden of real public debt? Several recent proposals have suggested that even a moderate increase in the inflation target can have a pronounced effect on real public debt. We consider this question in a New Keynesian model...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009732007
We present a sticky-price model incorporating heterogeneous firms and systematic firm-level productivity trends. Aggregating the model in closed form, we show that it delivers radically different predictions for the optimal inflation rate than canonical sticky price models featuring homogenous...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011712837
Since the 2001 recession, average core inflation has been below the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. This deflationary bias is a predictable consequence of a symmetric monetary policy strategy that fails to recognize the risk of encountering the zero-lower-bound. An asymmetric rule according to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012651566
We study the impact of market incompleteness and bounded rationality on the effectiveness of make-up strategies. To do so, we simulate a heterogeneous-agent New Keynesian (HANK) model with reflective expectations and an occasionally-binding effective lower bound (ELB) on the policy rate. Our...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013493615