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Trend growth expectations and US house prices before and after the crisis

Hoffmann, Mathias; Krause, Michael; Laubach, Thomas - 2012

portion of the evolution of U.S. house prices during the past 20 years can be reproduced when expectations of future income … corresponding changes in house prices, since the value of housing must be linked to expected aggregate income. Only since about 2005 …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009528869

The expectations-driven US current account

Hoffmann, Mathias; Krause, Michael; Laubach, Thomas - 2013

Since 1991, survey expectations of long-run output growth for the U.S. relative to the rest of the world exhibit a pattern strikingly similar to that of the U.S. current account, and thus also to global imbalances. We show that this finding can to a large extent be rationalized in a two-region...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009732995

The Brexit vote, productivity growth and macroeconomic adjustments in the United Kingdom

Broadbent, Ben; Di Pace, Federico; Drechsel, Thomas; … - 2019

The UK economy has experienced significant macroeconomic adjustments following the 2016 referendum on its withdrawal from the European Union. This paper develops and estimates a small open economy model with tradable and non-tradable sectors to characterise these adjustments. We demonstrate that...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012055479

Consumption-led expansions are toxic for future output growth

Virén, Matti E. E. - 2022

When assessing future growth prospects, does it matter how the economy grows now? In other words, does the current structure of demand affect future growth? This question is analyzed in our paper by using global and EU panel data. The result is quite striking: consumption-led growth - either in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013440345

Consumption-led expansions are toxic for future output growth

Virén, Matti E. E. - 2022

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014551580

Don't expect too much - high income expectations and over-indebtedness

Klühs, Theres; Koch, Melanie; Stein, Wiebke - 2019

in the theory of permanent income: high income expectations. We collect data from an emerging country, Thailand, as (over …. We implement a new measure for high income expectations and show that it is strongly and robustly related to both …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012126240

Earn more tomorrow : overconfident income expectations and consumer indebtedness

Grohmann, Antonia; Menkhoff, Lukas; Merkle, Christoph; … - 2019

This paper examines whether biased income expectations due to overconfidence lead to higher levels of debt-taking. In a … lab experiment, participants can purchase goods by borrowing against their future income. We exogenously manipulate income … expectations by letting income depend on relative performance in hard and easy quiz tasks. We successfully generate biased income …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012033567

House price expectations

Gohl-Greenaway, Niklas; Haan, Peter; Michelsen, Claus; … - 2022

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012818330

The formation of subjective house price expectations

Kiesl-Reiter, Sarah; Lührmann, Melanie; Shaw, Jonathan; … - 2024

Subjective house price expectations drive individual housing choices and market dynamics. We study the formation of subjective expectations about local house prices using novel survey data from Britain, a country with high homeownership rates and widely varying local housing dynamics. There is a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014502998

House price expectations

Gohl-Greenaway, Niklas; Haan, Peter; Michelsen, Claus; … - 2022

This study examines short-, medium-, and long-run price expectations in housing markets. We derive and test six hypothesis about the incidence, formation, and relevance of price expectations. To do so, we use data from a tailored household survey, past sale and rental offerings, satellites, and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013191575