We introduce a novel simulation-based network approach, which provides full-edged distributions of potential interbank losses. Based on those distributions we propose measures for (i) systemic importance of single banks, (ii) vulnerability of single banks, and (iii) vulnerability of the whole...

This paper deals with stress tests for credit risk and shows how exploiting the discretion when setting up and implementing a model can drive the results of a quantitative stress test for default probabilities. For this purpose, we employ several variations of a CreditPortfolioView-style model...

In this paper we study the impact of model uncertainty, which occurs when linking a stress scenario to default probabilities, on reduced-form credit risk stress testing. This type of uncertainty is omnipresent in most macroeconomic stress testing applications due to short time series for banks'...

In the last decade, stress tests have become indispensable in bank risk management which has led to significantly increased requirements for stress tests for banks and regulators. Although the complexity of stress testing frameworks has been enhanced considerably over the course of the last few...

We introduce an innovative theoretical framework for the valuation and replication of derivative transactions between defaultable entities based on the principle of arbitrage freedom. Our framework extends the traditional formulations based on credit and debit valuation adjustments (CVA and...

M-PRESS-CreditRisk is a new top-down macro stress testing framework that can help supervisors gauge banks' capital adequacy related to credit risk. For the first time, it combines calibration of microprudential capital requirements and macroprudential buffers in a unified, coherent framework....

Mutual fund risk-taking via active portfolio rebalancing varies both in the cross-section and over time. In this paper, I show that the same is true for funds' off- balance sheet risk-taking, even after controlling for on-balance sheet activities. For this purpose, I propose a novel measure of...

This paper provides initial evidence on counterparty risk-mitigation activities of financial institutions on the basis of Depository Trust and Clearing Corporation's (DTCC) proprietary bilateral credit default swap transactions and positions. We show that financial institutions that are active...

Probabilities of default (PDs) of loans are of central importance for financial stability. We analyze the PDs, reported quarterly by German financial institutions to Deutsche Bundesbank. The development of PDs is modelled as an AR process of PD changes and an initial PD. Panel regressions show...

Against the backdrop of a high stock of non-performing loans (NPLs) in several European countries, this paper investigates the role of NPLs for lending rates charged for newly granted loans in the euro area. More precisely, it looks for an effect that extends beyond losses caused by that stock...