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Higher-order income risk over the business cycle
Busch, Christopher; Ludwig, Alexander - 2020
We extend the canonical income process with persistent and transitory risk to shock distributions with left-skewness and excess kurtosis, to which we refer as higher-order risk. We estimate our extended income process by GMM for household data from the United States. We find countercyclical...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012215285
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The effects of an increase in the retirement age on health : evidence from administrative data
Barschkett, Mara; Geyer, Johannes; Haan, Peter; … - 2021
This study analyzes the causal effect of an increase in the retirement age on health. We exploit a sizable cohort …-in-Differences approach. The analysis is based on official records covering all individuals insured by the public health system in Germany and …-dimensionality in these health effects. The empirical findings reflect the multi-dimensionality but allow for deriving two broader …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013191363
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Equity premium predictability over the business cycle
Mönch, Emanuel; Stein, Tobias - 2021
The equity premium follows a pronounced v-shape pattern around the beginning of recessions. It sharply drops into negative territory just before business cycle peaks and then strongly recovers as the recession unfolds. Recessions are preceded by an inverted yield curve. Thus probit models using...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012607106
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Alcohol, violence and injury-induced mortality: evidence from a modern-day prohibition
Barron, Kai; Parry, Charles D. H.; Bradshaw, Debbie; … - 2022
this policy causally reduced injury-induced mortality in the country by at least 14% during the five weeks of the ban. We … argue that this estimate constitutes a lower bound on the true impact of alcohol on injury-induced mortality. We also …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013166761
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Alcohol and short-run mortality : evidence from a modern-day prohibition
Barron, Kai; Bradshaw, Debbie; Parry, Charles D. H.; … - 2021
evaluates the impact of this sudden and unexpected five-week alcohol prohibition on mortality due to unnatural causes. We find … the impact of alcohol on short-run mortality, and underscores the severe influence that alcohol has on society - even in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012500339
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Household search and the aggregate labor market
Mankart, Jochen; Oikonomou, Rigas - 2015
We develop a theoretical model with labor market frictions, incomplete financial markets and with households which have two members. Households face unemployment risks but their members adjust their labor supplies to insure against unemployment. We use the model to explain the cyclical...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011312576
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Did output gap measurement improve over time?
Chiu, Adrian; Wieladek, Tomasz - 2012
We study whether the accuracy of real-time estimates of the output gap produced by the OECD has improved over time by examining a panel dataset on real-time output gap revisions for 15 countries from 1991 Q1 - 2005 Q4. We use a simple panel data regression and a state space model, with common...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009559228
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US business cycle dynamics at the zero lower bound
Böhl, Gregor; Strobel, Felix - 2020
the estimation severely distorts the analysis of the latest economic dynamics. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012406022
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Divisia monetary aggregates for a heterogeneous euro area
Brill, Maximilian; Nautz, Dieter; Sieckmann, Lea - 2019 - This version: June 25, 2019
We introduce a Divisia monetary aggregate for the euro area that accounts for the heterogeneity across member countries both, in terms of interest rates and the decomposition of monetary assets. In most of the euro area countries, the difference between the growth rates of the country-specific...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012023395
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On adjusting the one-sided Hodrick-Prescott filter
Wolf, Elias; Mokinski, Frieder; Schüler, Yves - 2020
We show that one should not use the one-sided Hodrick-Prescott filter (HP-1s) as the real-time version of the two-sided Hodrick-Prescott filter (HP-2s): First, in terms of the extracted cyclical component, HP-1s fails to remove low-frequency fluctuations to the same extent as HP-2s. Second,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012180612