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The (ir)relevance of the nominal lower bound for real yield curve analysis

Schupp, Fabian - 2020

I propose a new term structure model for euro area real and nominal interest rates which explicitly incorporates a time-varying lower bound for nominal interest rates. Results suggest that the lower bound is of importance in structural analyses implying time-varying impulse responses of yield...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012222610

Disentangling the effects of multidimensional monetary policy on inflation and inflation expectations in the euro area

Martínez-Hernández, Catalina - 2020 - This version: October 30, 2020

anchoring of inflation expectations. I carry out my analysis based on a high-frequency identification and the estimation of a …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012305860

Is it really more dispersed? : measuring and comparing the stress from the common monetary policy in the euro area

Quint, Dominic - 2014

The ECB's one size monetary policy is unlikely to fit all euro area members at all times, which raises the question of how much monetary policy stress this causes at the national level. I measure monetary policy stress as the difference between actual ECB interest rates and Taylor-rule implied...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010349426

Inflation anchoring in the euro area

Speck, Christian - 2016

Did the decline in inflation rates from 2012 to 2015 and the low levels of market-based inflation expectations lead to de-anchored inflation dynamics in the euro area? This paper is the first time-varying event study to investigate the reaction of inflation-linked swap (ILS) rates - a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011456474

Uncertainty about QE effects when an interest rate peg is anticipated

Gerke, Rafael; Giesen, Sebastian; Kienzler, Daniel - 2018

After hitting the lower bound on interest rates, the Eurosystem engaged in a public sector purchase programme (PSPP) and forward guidance (FG). We use prior and posterior predictive analysis to evaluate the importance of parameter uncertainty in an analysis of these policies. We model FG as an...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011846905

The impact of the European Monetary Union on inflation persistence in the euro area

Meller, Barbara; Nautz, Dieter - 2009

, results obtained from panel estimation indicate that the degree of long run inflation persistence has converged. In line with …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003875991

Sovereign default swap market efficiency and country risk in the eurozone

Gündüz, Yalın; Kaya, Orcun - 2013

sovereign CDSs of 10 eurozone countries to test the evidence of long memory behavior during the financial crisis. Our analysis … eurozone countries by estimating dynamic conditional correlations. -- Credit default swaps ; long memory ; sovereign risk … ; eurozone economies ; FIGARCH ; dynamic conditional correlation …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009731982

A note on the predictive power of survey data in nowcasting euro area GDP

Kurz-Kim, Jeong-Ryeol - 2018

This paper investigates the trade-off between timeliness and quality in nowcasting practices. This trade-off arises when the frequency of the variable to be nowcast, such as GDP, is quarterly, while that of the underlying panel data is monthly; and the latter contains both survey and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011846875

(When) does money growth help to predict Euro-area inflation at low frequencies?

Schreiber, Sven - 2013 - this version: June 2013

Short answer: It helps a lot when other important variables are excluded from the information set. Longer answer: We revisit claims in the literature that money growth is Granger-causal for inflation at low frequencies. Applying frequency-specific tests in a comprehensive system setup for...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009774367

Inflation, deflation, and uncertainty : what drives euro area option-implied inflation expectations and are they still anchored in the sovereign debt crisis?

Scharnagl, Michael; Stapf, Jelena - 2014

We tackle two questions in this paper: In the sovereign debt crisis, what moves the euro area inflation outlook and has the firm anchoring of medium to long-term inflation expectations been touched? Deriving densities from a new data set on options on the euro area harmonized index of consumer...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010415789

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