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A structural Bayesian vector autoregression model predicts that - when accompanied by a decline in consumer confidence - a one-percent decrease in house prices is associated with a contraction of economic activity by 0.2 to 1.2 percent after one year. Results point to important second-round...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012173539
We apply a monopoly trade union model and analyze employment, wage and budgetary effects of (i) an inflow of migrant workers and (ii) an increase in the labor market participation rate of migrants. Per assumption, natives and migrants solely differ with respect to the level of benefit claims in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009510576
Does a high regional concentration of immigrants of the same ethnicity affect immigrant children's acquisition of host-country language skills and educational attainment? We exploit the exogenous placement of guest workers from five ethnicities across German regions during the 1960s and 1970s in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011904270
Estimating the returns to migration from East to West Germany, this paper focuses on pre-migration employment dynamics, earnings uncertainty, and job change in the source region. Migrants are found to be negatively selected with respect to labor market outcomes, with a large drop in earnings and...
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There has been mixed evidence regarding the existence of rational bubbles in the foreign exchange markets. Standard … unit root and cointegration tests are criticized for their low power to detect rational bubbles that periodically collapse …. This paper introduces recently developed sequential unit root tests into the analysis of exchange rates bubbles. Our …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009704893
We use a Diamond/Dybvig-based model with two banks operating in separate regions connected by a common asset market in which banks and sophisticated depositors invest. We study the effect of a potential run (crisis) and subsequent fire sales on the asset price in both the crisis and no-crisis...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010433396