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Time-varying volatility, financial intermediation and monetary policy
Eickmeier, Sandra; Metiu, Norbert; Prieto, Esteban - 2016
of high volatility compared to periods of low volatility, using a regime-switching vector autoregression. The lower … that is weaker in high volatility periods. To rationalize our robust empirical results, we use a macroeconomic model in … volatility of aggregate shocks. In low volatility periods, banks lever up, which makes their balance sheets more sensitive to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011564503
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Time-varying stock return correlation, news shocks, and business cycles
Metiu, Norbert; Prieto, Esteban - 2023 - November 25, 2022
The cross-sectional average of pairwise correlations across stocks traded on the NYSE, AMEX, and Nasdaq is a powerful predictor of U.S. economic activity at a horizon of one to four years. Its predictive ability is on a par with the slope of the yield curve and significantly exceeds that of some...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014227600
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Financial variables as predictors of real growth vulnerability
Reichlin, Lucrezia; Ricco, Giovanni; Hasenzagl, Thomas - 2020 - This version: 30th October 2019
We evaluate the role of financial conditions as predictors of macroeconomic risk first in the quantile regression framework of Adrian et al. (2019b), which allows for non-linearities, and then in a novel linear semi-structural model as proposed by Hasenzagl et al. (2018). We distinguish between...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012173525
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To sign or not to sign? : on the response of prices to financial and uncertainty shocks
Meinen, Philipp; Röhe, Oke - 2018
Based on SVAR models identified by sign restrictions, we estimate the macroeconomic effects of financial and uncertainty shocks in the euro area and the US, paying particular attention to their effects on prices. While our results confirm that such disturbances are important drivers of output...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011897983
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The global financial cycle and macroeconomic tail risks
Beutel, Johannes; Emter, Lorenz; Metiu, Norbert; … - 2022
We study the link between the global financial cycle and macroeconomic tail risks using quantile vector autoregressions. Contractionary shocks to financial conditions and monetary policy in the United States cause elevated downside risks to growth around the world. By tightening financial...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013459721
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Banking market structure and macroeconomic stability : are low-income countries special?
Bremus, Franziska; Buch, Claudia M. - 2014
Does the structure of banking markets affect macroeconomic volatility and, if yes, is this link different in low … markets affects macroeconomic volatility. Our research has three main findings. First, we study the relevance of granular … effects: if the degree of market concentration in the banking sector is sufficiently high, idiosyncratic volatility at the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010471853
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Characterizing the financial cycle : evidence from a frequency domain analysis
Strohsal, Till; Proaño Acosta, Christian; Wolters, Jürgen - 2015
A growing body of literature argues that the financial cycle is considerably longer in duration and larger in amplitude than the business cycle and that its distinguishing features became more pronounced over time. This paper proposes an empirical approach suitable to test these hypotheses. We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011299043
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The impact of uncertainty and certainty shocks
Schüler, Yves S. - 2020
I propose a Bayesian quantile VAR to identify and assess the impact of uncertainty and certainty shocks, unifying Bloom's (2009) two identification steps into one. I find that an uncertainty shock widens the conditional distribution of future real economic activity growth, in line with a risk...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012180723
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Uncertainty shocks and financial crisis indicators
Hristov, Nikolay; Roth, Markus - 2019
The current paper broadens the understanding for the role of uncertainty in the context of a macroeconomic environment. It focuses on the implications of uncertainty shocks on indicators that tend to precede financial crises. In an empirical analysis we show for a set of four euro area countries...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012102657
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Financial cycles across G7 economies : a view from wavelet analysis
Mandler, Martin; Scharnagl, Michael - 2019
a larger share of the volatility of these variables at the country level than common cycles in credit aggregates and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012020175