Recently, several institutions have increased their forecast horizons, and many institutions rely on their past … forecast errors to estimate measures of forecast uncertainty. This work addresses the question how the latter estimation can be … accomplished if there are only very few errors available for the new forecast horizons. It extends upon the results of Knüppel …

– the BOI’s USD purchases have widened the negative deviation from covered interest parity. The higher moments of the risk … unaffected. The USD purchases simply shift the whole distribution towards higher USD/ILS values. Crash risk, for instance, is …

-variations in the relationship between systematic risk factors and corporate bond spreads. First, we apply Bayesian model averaging … to a battery of candidate variables for determining meaningful systematic risk factors. Second, Markov switching … market conditions, on the other. Our evidence for market indices of euro-denominated bonds suggests that systematic risk …

bank’s own interest rate expectations. From a theoretical point of view, the latter should yield the highest forecast … view, appears to be at best of minor relevance empirically. -- Forecast Accuracy ; Density Forecasts ; Projections …