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Improving profitability forecasts with information on earnings quality
Demmer, Matthias - 2015
profit margin provide incremental information for predicting changes in future return on assets. After controlling for …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010520353
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Earnings baths by bank CEOs during turnovers
Bornemann, Sven; Pfingsten, Andreas; Kick, Thomas; … - 2014
This study investigates the development of income-decreasing discretionary expenses surrounding CEO turnovers at banks. We expect incoming CEOs to take an earnings bath during the initial stage of their tenure. For a sample of German banks over the period 1993-2012, we document that (1) incoming...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010249661
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Performance forecasts in uncertain environments : examining the predictive power of the VRIO-framework
Powalla, Christian; Bresser, Rudi K. F. - 2010
Strategy tools are widely used in the practice of strategic management to yield a good solution with an acceptable problem-solving effort. This paper presents results of an experimental research project that assesses the practical effectiveness of a theory-based decision-making tool, the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008665447
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Do well managed firms make better forecasts?
Bloom, Nicholas; Kawakubo, Takafumi; Meng, Charlotte; … - 2022
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012798248
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Benchmarking short term forecasts of regional banknote lodgements and withdrawals
Sonnleitner, Benedikt; Stapf, Jelena; Wulff, Kai - 2024
Among the most important tasks of central banks is to ensure the availability of cash to credit institutions and retailers. Forecasting the demand for cash on a granular level is crucial in the process to keep logistics costs low, while being resilient to demand or supply shocks. Whereas to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015079884
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Do financial market experts know their theory? : new evidence from survey data
Brückbauer, Frank - 2022 - This draft: April 2022
forecasts has weak predictive power for actual returns, but is a less precise forecast than a simple average of historical stock …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013175639
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Why are asset returns predictable?
Lüders, Erik - 2002
Starting from an information process governed by a geometric Brownian motion we show that asset returns are predictable if the elasticity of the pricing kernel is not constant. Declining [Increasing] elasticity of the pricing kernel leads to mean reversion and negatively autocorrelated asset...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013428490
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Do financial market experts know their theory? : new evidence from survey data
Brückbauer, Frank - 2020
market experts’ stock return forecasts has weak predictive power for actual returns, but is a less precise forecast than a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012420532
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The empirical (ir)relevance of the interest rate assumption for central bank forecasts
Knüppel, Malte; Schultefrankenfeld, Guido - 2013
bank’s own interest rate expectations. From a theoretical point of view, the latter should yield the highest forecast … view, appears to be at best of minor relevance empirically. -- Forecast Accuracy ; Density Forecasts ; Projections …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009732992
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Forecast-error-based estimation of forecast uncertainty when the horizon is increased
Knüppel, Malte - 2014
Recently, several institutions have increased their forecast horizons, and many institutions rely on their past … forecast errors to estimate measures of forecast uncertainty. This work addresses the question how the latter estimation can be … accomplished if there are only very few errors available for the new forecast horizons. It extends upon the results of Knüppel …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010465566