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Time-varying stock return correlation, news shocks, and business cycles
Metiu, Norbert; Prieto, Esteban - 2023 - November 25, 2022
The cross-sectional average of pairwise correlations across stocks traded on the NYSE, AMEX, and Nasdaq is a powerful predictor of U.S. economic activity at a horizon of one to four years. Its predictive ability is on a par with the slope of the yield curve and significantly exceeds that of some...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014227600
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Tests for jumps in yield spreads
Winkelmann, Lars; Yao, Wenying - 2021
This paper develops high-frequency econometric methods to test for jumps in the spread of bond yields. We derive a coherent inference procedure that detects a jump in the yield spread only if at least one of the two underlying bonds displays a jump. We formalize the test as a sequential...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012655372
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Credit crunches from occasionally binding bank borrowing constraints
Holden, Tom D.; Levine, Paul; Swarbrick, Jonathan M. - 2019
We present a model in which banks and other financial intermediaries face both occasionally binding borrowing constraints, and costs of equity issuance. Near the steady state, these intermediaries can raise equity finance at no cost through retained earnings. However, even moderately large...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011962846
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Tests for jumps in yield spreads
Winkelmann, Lars; Yao, Wenying - 2023
This paper studies high-frequency econometric methods to test for a jump in the spread of bond yields. We propose a coherent inference procedure that detects a jump in the yield spread only if at least one of the two underlying bonds displays a jump. Ignoring this inherent connection by basing...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014343097
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The macroeconomic effects of inflation uncertainty
Metiu, Norbert; Prieto, Esteban - 2023
The uncertainty of U.S. core inflation, measured by the stochastic volatility of forecast errors, has soared to a level …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014436184
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The effect of bank shocks on firm-level and aggregate investment
Amador, João; Nagengast, Arne J. - 2016
We show that credit supply shocks have a strong impact on firm-level as well as aggregate investment by applying the methodology developed by Amiti and Weinstein (2013) to a rich dataset of matched bank-firm loans in the Portuguese economy for the period 2005 to 2013. We argue that their...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011495499
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Asymmetric volatility clustering, risk-return relationship and day of the week effects : evidence from nineteen stock markets
Balaban, Ercan; Bayar, Aslı; Kan, Özgür Berk - 1999
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001399859
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Financial crises and the dynamic linkages between stock and bond returns
Eraslan, Sercan; Ali, Faek Menla - 2017
framework is a bivariate volatility model, where volatility spillovers of either positive or negative sign are allowed for. Our … countries. Regarding the volatility spillovers, such spillovers from bond returns to those of stocks are stronger than the other … results show that by considering time-varying return and volatility spillovers when calculating the risk-minimising portfolio …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011663407
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The (ir)relevance of the nominal lower bound for real yield curve analysis
Schupp, Fabian - 2020
I propose a new term structure model for euro area real and nominal interest rates which explicitly incorporates a time-varying lower bound for nominal interest rates. Results suggest that the lower bound is of importance in structural analyses implying time-varying impulse responses of yield...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012222610
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The effect of conventional and unconventional euro area monetary policy on macroeconomic variables
Halberstadt, Arne; Krippner, Leo - 2016
We investigate the e ect of monetary policy on European macroeconomic variables using a small-scale vector autoregression (VAR) and the "Effective Monetary Stimulus" (EMS). The EMS is a monetary policy metric obtained from yield curve data that is designed to consistently reflect the overall...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011578396