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forecast errors to estimate measures of forecast uncertainty. This work addresses the question how the latter estimation can be … quantities. It turns out that the SUR estimator of forecast uncertainty tends to deliver large efficiency gains compared to the …Recently, several institutions have increased their forecast horizons, and many institutions rely on their past …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010465566
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Activities of international banks have been at the core of discussions on the causes and effects of the international financial crisis. Yet, we know little about the actual magnitudes and mechanisms for transmission of liquidity shocks through international banks, including the reasons for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010393856
We develop a measure of static misallocation that separates uncertainty from misallocation generated by tax …-like distortions. In the Finnish firm-level data, uncertainty accounts for the majority of ex post misallocation and explains a strong … implies idiosyncratic distortions, in line with our accounting approach. According to our quantitative results, uncertainty …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012583062
robust model for small amounts of uncertainty and analyze the effect of robustness on optimal trading strategies and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012500352
The current paper broadens the understanding for the role of uncertainty in the context of a macroeconomic environment …. It focuses on the implications of uncertainty shocks on indicators that tend to precede financial crises. In an empirical … analysis we show for a set of four euro area countries that negative uncertainty shocks, while accompanied by favorable effects …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012102657
that a shift to a high-uncertainty regime incentivizes firms to invest in their ability to adjust prices. We formalize this … uncertainty, firms set prices more flexibly. This improves their resilience, reducing exit and output losses in response to … negative supply shocks. Uncertainty regarding monetary policy has similar effects. We show that higher monetary policy …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014558815
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uncertainty in estimates of population parameters. In science, evidence is generated to test hypotheses in an evidence …-generating process (EGP). We claim that EGP variation across researchers adds uncertainty: Non-standard errors (NSEs). We study NSEs by … or higher rated research. Adding peer-review stages reduces NSEs. We further find that this type of uncertainty is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014478337
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