German GDP. Our recursive out-of-sample forecast evaluation results reveal that our framework is able to generate forecasts … superior to those obtained from a naive and more competitive benchmark models. These forecast gains seem to emerge especially …

the pandemic period, as well as for earlier subsamples of relatively high volatility. In historical forecasting, outlier …

by the 4 NCBs as an additional forecasting tool. The forecast accuracy measures used in this study show that the …, Germany, Italy and Spain (‘4 NCBs’). To date, the 4 NCBs have been using ARIMAX models to forecast the banknotes issued …

We present a comprehensive disaggregate approach for short-term forecasting economic activity in Germany by explicitly …-of-sample forecast evaluation setup, we are able to find informative forecasts for most of the underlying GDP components. We then show … first, that both approaches already yield informative aggregate forecasts for forecast horizons of up to 28 weeks and second …

retailers. Forecasting the demand for cash on a granular level is crucial in the process to keep logistics costs low, while … models to define banknote production for the coming years, our contribution is to combine features of macro level forecasting … forecasting methods on granular level can substantially improve inventory performance for this use-case. To guide the …

research. Many forecast surveys ask their participants for fixed-event forecasts. Since fixed-event forecasts have seasonal … very flexible. The forecast to be approximated as well as the information employed by the approximation can be any linear …

COVID-19 observations and discusses their impact on prior calibration for inference and forecasting purposes. It shows that … volatility. For forecasting, the choice among outlier-robust error structures is less important, however, when a large cross …

forecasting macroeconomic key variables such as GDP. However, the DFM has some weaknesses. For nowcasting, the dynamic factor … on euro-area data show that the now- and forecasting performance of our new model is superior to that of the subset …