Among the most important tasks of central banks is to ensure the availability of cash to credit institutions and retailers. Forecasting the demand for cash on a granular level is crucial in the process to keep logistics costs low, while being resilient to demand or supply shocks. Whereas to...

This paper analyses the forecasting performance of monetary policy reaction functions using U.S. Federal Reserve's Greenbook real-time data. The results indicate that artificial neural networks are able to predict the nominal interest rate better than linear and nonlinearTaylor rule models as...

Virtually each seasonal adjustment software includes an ensemble of seasonality tests for assessing whether a given time series is in fact a candidate for seasonal adjustment. However, such tests are certain to produce either the same resultor conflicting results, raising the question if there...

The subprime crisis revealed that the adoption of suitable systems for the management of credit risk is of utmost concern. The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (2009) advises banks to use credit portfolio models with caution when assessing the capital adequacy. This paper investigates...

This paper deals with stress tests for credit risk and shows how exploiting the discretion when setting up and implementing a model can drive the results of a quantitative stress test for default probabilities. For this purpose, we employ several variations of a CreditPortfolioView-style model...

The novel partial-use philosophy by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision initiates a paradigm shift for banks, allowing them to permanently partially apply the internal ratings-based approach (IRBA) and not having to fully roll it out across the overall bank anymore. This raises the...