inflation and output. Our main findings are threefold. First, monetary policy affects the probability of a crisis both in the … reduce the probability of a crisis and increase welfare by departing from strict inflation targeting and responding …

number of inflation and real activity measures for the United States. We identify demand and supply factors by imposing … demand and supply over the past five decades. The most recent factor estimates indicate that the inflation surge since mid …

We tackle two questions in this paper: In the sovereign debt crisis, what moves the euro area inflation outlook and has … the firm anchoring of medium to long-term inflation expectations been touched? Deriving densities from a new data set on … options on the euro area harmonized index of consumer prices provides us with the full distribution of inflation expectations …

horizon-dependent biases and lower accuracy than simple unconditional uncertainty forecasts. We examine the inflation …

underestimate the ECB's inflation forecasting accuracy. In particular, they believe that the ECB is overly optimistic. Communication … that challenges these perceptions improves the anchoring of inflation expectations, reduces inflation uncertainty and … discourages consumption of durable goods. Treated households also report higher trust in the ECB, perceive the ECB's inflation …

This paper uses a "trendy" approach to understand UK inflation dynamics. It focuses on the time series to isolate a low …-frequency and slow-moving component of inflation (the trend) from deviations around this trend. We find that this slow-moving trend … explains a substantial share of UK inflation dynamics. International prices are significantly correlated with the short …

inflation-forecast-based (IFB) rules. It shows that, for a variety of New Keynesian sticky-price and sticky-inflation models …, these are a function not just of the degree of responsiveness of the policy instrument to deviations of expected inflation …