of high volatility compared to periods of low volatility, using a regime-switching vector autoregression. The lower … that is weaker in high volatility periods. To rationalize our robust empirical results, we use a macroeconomic model in … volatility of aggregate shocks. In low volatility periods, banks lever up, which makes their balance sheets more sensitive to …

Does the structure of banking markets affect macroeconomic volatility and, if yes, is this link different in low … markets affects macroeconomic volatility. Our research has three main findings. First, we study the relevance of granular … effects: if the degree of market concentration in the banking sector is sufficiently high, idiosyncratic volatility at the …

VARs. To address these issues, we propose VAR models with outlier-augmented stochastic volatility (SV) that combine … transitory and persistent changes in volatility. The resulting density forecasts are much less sensitive to outliers in the data … the pandemic period, as well as for earlier subsamples of relatively high volatility. In historical forecasting, outlier …