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We explore the concept of global liquidity based on a factor model estimated using a large set of financial and macroeconomic variables from 24 advanced and emerging market economies. We measure global liquidity conditions based on the common global factors in the dynamics of liquidity...
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comparison of the candidate models, it is found that the dynamic models do indeed achieve a better fit to the data than the …
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We construct a measure of the short-term world interest rate using principal component analysis. Drawing on real … interest rate data for 18 OECD countries for the period 1985 - 2008, persistent deviations from the world interest rate that … that a rise in conditional consumption growth volatility relative to the rest of the world reduces the foreign exchange …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008695840
We explore whether modelling parameter time variation improves the point, interval and density forecasts of nine major exchange rates vis-a-vis the US dollar over the period 1976-2015. We find that modelling parameter time variation is needed for an accurate calibration of forecast confidence...
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