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This paper develops high-frequency econometric methods to test for jumps in the spread of bond yields. We derive a coherent inference procedure that detects a jump in the yield spread only if at least one of the two underlying bonds displays a jump. We formalize the test as a sequential...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012655372
to overestimate the number of jumps in yield spreads and puts the coherence of test results at risk. We formalize the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014343097
varies substantially with market conditions. In periods of high volatility, systematic credit risk - rather than interest … rate movements - contributes to driving up spreads. Moreover, while market-wide liquidity risk is not priced when … capture credit risk and suggest it must be reassessed during periods of financial distress. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011979160
term structure model to decompose bond excess returns into expected excess returns (risk premia) and the unexpected part …. In order to explore these risk premia and innovations, we complement macro variables by financial condition variables as …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010436625
Affine term structure models of bond yields are important tools for analyzing fixed income markets and monetary policy. Estimators of Adrian, Crump, and Mönch (2013) and Diez de Los Rios (2015) replace time-consuming nonlinear search procedures with a set of simple linear regressions. However,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014320252
loss, bond risk premium and liquidity premium components. The approach focuses on establishing the bond risk premium using … the equity risk premium and the hedge ratio, which are estimated using a dividend discount model and a BEKK-GARCH model …, French, Spanish and Italian firms. The results show that the bond risk premium is the largest component. While the expected …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010458538
Using arbitrage-free affine models, we analyze the dynamics of German bond yields and risk premia for the period 1999 … macroeconomic factors allows us to analyze their effect on the risk aversion of market participants. Looking at the impact of the … recent crises, we see that particularly the market prices of risk for the real activity and the price factor changed most …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009656194
-variations in the relationship between systematic risk factors and corporate bond spreads. First, we apply Bayesian model averaging … to a battery of candidate variables for determining meaningful systematic risk factors. Second, Markov switching … market conditions, on the other. Our evidence for market indices of euro-denominated bonds suggests that systematic risk …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011855295
way to come up with a measure of time-varying disaster risk in the spirit of Wachter (2013). Our findings imply that both … the disaster and the long-run risk paradigm can be extended towards explaining movements in the stock-bond return …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012000570
The equity premium follows a pronounced v-shape pattern around the beginning of recessions. It sharply drops into negative territory just before business cycle peaks and then strongly recovers as the recession unfolds. Recessions are preceded by an inverted yield curve. Thus probit models using...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012607106