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Short-term forecasting economic activity in Germany : a supply and demand side system of bridge equations

Pinkwart, Nicolas - 2018

We present a comprehensive disaggregate approach for short-term forecasting economic activity in Germany by explicitly taking into account the supply or production side and the demand side of GDP. The GDP figures calculated by the two sides usually yield different results and the official GDP...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011900715

A note on the predictive power of survey data in nowcasting euro area GDP

Kurz-Kim, Jeong-Ryeol - 2018

This paper investigates the trade-off between timeliness and quality in nowcasting practices. This trade-off arises …. Our main finding from a historical nowcasting simulation based on euro area GDP is that the predictive power of the survey …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011846875

MIDAS and bridge equations

Schumacher, Christian - 2014

multi-step nowcasting tool, whereas bridge equations are based on iterated forecasts; 2) MIDAS equations employ empirical … set for nowcasting includes the most recent indicator observations in both approaches. To discuss the differences between … models are compared in an empirical application to nowcasting GDP growth in the Euro area given a large set of business cycle …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010432327

Robust real-time estimates of the German output gap based on a multivariate trend-cycle decomposition

Berger, Tino; Ochsner, Christian - 2022

present a nowcasting scheme that accurately predicts the German output gap up to three months prior to a gross domestic …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013370512

Anticipating business-cycle turning points in real time using density forecasts from a VAR

Schreiber, Sven - 2014 - This version: January 2014

For the timely detection of business-cycle turning points we suggest to use mediumsized linear systems (subset VARs with automated zero restrictions) to forecast the relevant underlying variables, and to derive the probability of the turning point from the forecast density as the probability...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010233998

Macroeconomic forecasting with LSTM and mixed frequency time series data

Sarun Kamolthip - 2021

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012655492

Weather adjustment of economic output

Schreiber, Sven - 2017 - This version: February 2017

While recurring and regular variations of weather conditions are implicitly addressed by standard seasonal adjustment procedures of economic time series, extraordinary weather outcomes are not. We propose a way of measuring aggregate abnormal weather conditions based on available local...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011614063

Data revisions to German national accounts : are initial releases good nowcasts?

Strohsal, Till; Wolf, Elias - 2019

Data revisions to national accounts pose a serious challenge to policy decision making. Well-behaved revisions should be unbiased, small and unpredictable. This paper shows that revisions to German national accounts are biased, large and predictable. Moreover, using filtering techniques designed...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012034636

nowcasting

Kurz-Kim, Jeong-Ryeol - 2016

forecasting macroeconomic key variables such as GDP. However, the DFM has some weaknesses. For nowcasting, the dynamic factor …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011566828