We use a Diamond/Dybvig-based model with two banks operating in separate regions connected by a common asset market in which banks and sophisticated depositors invest. We study the effect of a potential run (crisis) and subsequent fire sales on the asset price in both the crisis and no-crisis...

We evaluate the role of financial conditions as predictors of macroeconomic risk first in the quantile regression framework of Adrian et al. (2019b), which allows for non-linearities, and then in a novel linear semi-structural model as proposed by Hasenzagl et al. (2018). We distinguish between...

Multi-agency financial stability committees (FSCs) have grown dramatically since the global financial crisis. However, most cannot direct actions or recommend to other agencies that they take actions, and most would influence policy actions only through convening and discussing risks. We...

Motivated by the build-up of shadow bank leverage prior to the financial crisis of 2007-2008, I develop a nonlinear macroeconomic model featuring excessive leverage accumulation and endogenous financial crises to capture the observed dynamics and to quantify the build-up of financial fragility....

Financial assistance provided by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is supposed to unlock other financing, acting as a catalyst for private capital flows. The empirical evidence of the presence of such a catalytic effect has, however, been mixed. This paper shows that a possible explanation...

Does a shift to ambitious climate policy increase financial fragility? In this paper, we develop a quantitative macroeconomic model with carbon taxes and endogenous financial crises to study such "Climate Minsky Moments". By reducing asset returns, an accelerated transition to net zero exerts...