We propose a new Markov switching model with time varying probabilities for the transitions. The novelty of our model is that the transition probabilities evolve over time by means of an observation driven model. The innovation of the time varying probability is generated by the score of the...

We develop an econometric methodology for the study of the yield curve and its interactions with measures of non-standard monetary policy during possibly turbulent times. The yield curve is modeled by the dynamic Nelson-Siegel model while the monetary policy measurements are modeled as...

We compare three stochastic user equilibrium traffic assignment models (multinomial probit, nested logit, and generalized nested logit), using a congestible transport network. We test the models in two situations: one in which they have theoretically equivalent coefficients, and one in which...

We propose a new methodology for designing flexible proposal densities for the joint posterior density of parameters and states in a nonlinear non-Gaussian state space model. We show that a highly efficient Bayesian procedure emerges when these proposal densities are used in an independent...

We introduce a dynamic statistical model for Skellam distributed random variables. The Skellam distribution can be obtained by taking differences between two Poisson distributed random variables. We treat cases where observations are measured over time and where possible serial correlation is...

This paper investigates the existence and uniqueness of equilibrium in the Vickrey bottleneck model when each user controls a positive fraction of total traffic. Users simultaneously choose departure schedules for their vehicle fleets. Each user internalizes the congestion cost that each of its...