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A flexible forecast density combination approach is introduced that can deal with large data sets. It extends the mixture of experts approach by allowing for model set incompleteness and dynamic learning of combination weights. A dimension reduction step is introduced using a sequential...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011989086
We suggest to extend the stacking procedure for a combination of predictive densities, proposed by Yao, Vehtari, Simpson, and Gelman(2018), to a setting where dynamic learning occurs about features of predictive densities of possibly misspecified models. This improves the averaging process of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011895574
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013424165
motivation may undermine intrinsic motivation. The self-perception (SP) theory developed by Bem (1972) explains this finding. The … crux of this theory is that people remember their past decisions and the extrinsic rewards they received, but they do not … recall their intrinsic motives. In this paper I show that the SP theory can be modeled as a variant of a conventional dynamic …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011349711
This paper studies wage structure characteristics and their incentive effects within one firm. Based on personnel records and an employee survey, we provide evidence that wages are attached to jobs and that promotions play a dominant role as a wage determinant. We furthermore show that a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011337995
This paper examines the effect of incentives on the performance of darts players. We analyze four data sets comprising … higher incentives, but choke when the incentives are really high. Professional players similarly display better performance … under higher incentives, but appear less susceptible of choking. These results speak to a growing literature on the limits …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011949171
Incentives based on esteem, honor and shame are increasingly popular and easy to use due to modern surveillance … Tirole (2011) to explore the effect of esteem-based incentives and their interaction with traditional monetary incentives. We … show that esteem-based incentives can indeed lead to a loss of control by generating multiple equilibria, some of which …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011844573
incentives - motivate a worker by adopting leadership styles that differ in their non-monetary consequences for the worker's well …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011936032
method additionally allows for other forms of cross-sectional heterogeneity. We consider a two-group approach for the model … Dirichlet process (DP) mixture of multivariate normals (other cross-sectional heterogeneity). We develop our approach for … continuous heterogeneity leads to an improved in-sample and out-of-sample performance and interesting insights. These findings …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012427429
A novel debate within competition policy and regulation circles is whether autonomous machine learning algorithms may learn to collude on prices. We show that when fims face short-run price commitments, independent Q-learning (a simple but well-established self-learning algorithm) learns to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011869980