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Disasters Everywhere : The Costs of Business Cycles Reconsidered

Jordà, Òscar; Schularick, Moritz; Taylor, Alan M. - 2022

Business cycles are costlier and stabilization policies could be more beneficial than widely thought. This paper introduces a new test to show that all business cycles are asymmetric and resemble “mini-disasters.” By this we mean that growth is pervasively fat-tailed and non-Gaussian. Using...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013298491

After the Panic : Are Financial Crises Demand or Supply Shocks? Evidence from International Trade

Benguria, Felipe - 2019

Are financial crises a negative shock to demand or a negative shock to supply? This is a fundamental question for both … empirical time series record, and they divide sharply between each type of shock. Household deleveraging shocks are mainly … exchange rate depreciates. History shows that, on average, financial crises are very clearly a negative shock to demand …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012871558

Sovereigns Versus Banks : Credit, Crises, and Consequences

Jordà, Òscar - 2013

Two separate narratives have emerged in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis. One interpretation speaks of private financial excess and the key role of the banking system in leveraging and deleveraging the economy. The other emphasizes the public sector balance sheet over the private and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013074907

The Great Mortgaging : Housing Finance, Crises, and Business Cycles

Jordà, Òscar - 2015

This paper unveils a new resource for macroeconomic research: a long-run dataset covering disaggregated bank credit for 17 advanced economies since 1870. The new data show that the share of mortgages on banks' balance sheets doubled in the course of the 20th century, driven by a sharp rise of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013032404

External Imbalances and Financial Crises

Taylor, Alan M. - 2012

In broad perspective, there have been essentially two competing views of the global financial crisis, albeit there are some complementarities among them. One view looks across the border: it mainly blames external imbalances, the large-scale mix of unprecedented pattern current account deficits...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013096849

Betting the house

Jordà, Òscar; Schularick, Moritz; Taylor, Alan M. - 2014

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010465548

The great mortaging : housing finance, crises, and business cycles

Jordà, Òscar; Schularick, Moritz; Taylor, Alan M. - 2014

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010416749

External imbalances and financial crises

Taylor, Alan M. - 2012

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009705803

Sovereigns versus banks : credit, crises, and consequences

Jordà, Òscar; Schularick, Moritz; Taylor, Alan M. - 2013

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010206900

Betting the House

Jordà, Òscar - 2014

Is there a link between loose monetary conditions, credit growth, house price booms, and financial instability? This paper analyzes the role of interest rates and credit in driving house price booms and busts with data spanning 140 years of modern economic history in the advanced economies. We...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013039761