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We forecast recession probabilities for the United States, Germany and Japan. The predictions are based on the widely … reached for the United States, the ProbVAR forecasts are slightly worse for Germany, but considerably inferior for Japan …
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We propose a framework to identify a rich set of structural drivers of inflation in order to understand the role of the multiple and concomitant sources of the post-pandemic inflation surge. We specify a medium-sized structural Bayesian VAR on a comprehensive set of variables for the euro area...
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We identify jointly supply chain disruptions shocks and energy supply shocks together with demand shocks using a structural BVAR with narrative restrictions. The impact of adverse supply chain disruption shocks on inflation expectations and core HICP is strong and rather persistent, while the...
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