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Disciplining expectations and the forward guidance puzzle

Müller, Tobias; Christoffel, Kai; Mazelis, Falk; … - 2020

Forward guidance operates via the expectations formation process of the agents in the economy. In standard quantitative macroeconomic models, the expectations are unobserved state variables and little scrutiny is devoted to analysing the dynamic behaviour of these expectations. We show that the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012241110

Near-rational exuberance

Bullard, James Brian (contributor); … - 2005

We study how the use of judgement or add-factorsʺ in macroeconomic forecasting may disturb the set of equilibrium outcomes when agents learn using recursive methods. We isolate conditions under which new phenomena, which we call exuberance equilibria, can exist in standard macroeconomic...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003209153

Liquidity traps, learning and stagnation

Evans, George W.; Guse, Eran; Honkapohja, Seppo - In: European economic review : EER 52 (2008) 8, pp. 1438-1463

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003804541

A toolkit for computing Constrained Optimal Policy Projections (COPPs)

De Groot, Oliver; Mazelis, Falk; Motto, Roberto; … - 2021

This paper presents a toolkit1 for generating optimal policy projections. It makes five contributions. First, the toolkit requires a minimal set of inputs: only a baseline projection for target and instrument variables and impulse responses of those variables to policy shocks. Second, it solves...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012519365

Asymmetric monetary policy rules for the euro area and the US

Maih, Junior; Mazelis, Falk; Motto, Roberto; … - 2021

We analyse the implications of asymmetric monetary policy rules by estimating Markovswitching DSGE models for the euro area (EA) and the US. The estimations show that until mid-2014 the ECB's response to in ation was more forceful when in ation was above 2% than below 2%. Since then, the ECB's...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012617047

Mitigating the forward guidance puzzle : inattention, credibility, finite planning horizons and learning

De Groot, Oliver; Mazelis, Falk - 2020

This paper develops a simple, consistent methodology for generating empirically realistic forward guidance simulations using existing macroeconomic models by modifying expectations about policy announcements. The main advantage of our method lies in the exact preservation of all other shock...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012241145

Expectations and the stability problem for optimal monetary policies

Evans, George W.; Honkapohja, Seppo - 2000

Eine auf den Fundamentaldaten beruhende Regelbindung der Geldpolitik ohne Selbstverpflichtung, die bei vollkommen … geeigneter Weise in die optimale Geldpolitik einbezogen werden. Diese eindeutige Schlußfolgerung gilt auch dann, wenn sich der … wichtig es ist, die Geldpolitik angemessen zu gestalten und dabei nicht nur die Fundamentaldaten, sondern auch direkt die …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011418901

Monetary policy strategies for the euro area : optimal rules in the presence of the ELB

Mazelis, Falk; Motto, Roberto; Ristiniemi, Annukka - 2023

We study alternative monetary policy strategies in the presence of the lower bound on nominal interest rates and a low equilibrium real rate using an estimated DSGE model for the euro area. We demonstrate that simple feedback rules that implement inflation targeting result in a binding lower...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014278603