Showing 1 - 10 of 143
-specific data sets, cointegration analyses are carried out both to identify long-run economic relationships and to remove the trend …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003227087
' activities is associated with an increase in firm-level employment volatility. We use a firm-level dataset for Germany which … that are active in Germany. We decompose the volatility of firms into their reaction and their exposure to aggregate …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003529554
We compared forecasts of stock market volatility based on real-time and revised macroeconomic data. To this end, we … used a new dataset on monthly real-time macroeconomic variables for Germany. The dataset covers the period 1994-2005. We … used a statistical, a utility-based, and an options-based criterion to evaluate volatility forecasts. Our main result is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003315444
Density forecasts have become quite important in economics and finance. For example, such forecasts play a central role in modern financial risk management techniques like Value at Risk. This paper suggests a regression based density forecast evaluation framework as a simple alternative to other...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011431370
In this paper we will be estimating risk-neutral densities (RND) for the largest euro area stock market (the index of which is the German DAX), reporting their statistical properties, and evaluating their forecasting performance. We have applied an innovative test procedure to a new, rich, and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011432259
In this paper we investigate the volatility structure of the German stock market index DAX and its constituents. Using … a recently developed test, we find a volatility break in 1997. Interestingly, not only is the volatility higher after … 1997 but the volatility persistence also increased. That means that there is a greater likelihood of high volatility days …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011432267
bonds in Germany. This feature is particularly attractive for the bond market, where OTC transactions account for most … trading. The volatility of yields of the four bonds more than doubled in the wake of the Russian devaluation on August 17th … Transaktion dieser vier Anleihen in Deutschland umfasst. Dies ist besonders für Arbeiten über den Rentenmarkt von großem Interesse …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011418740
From a theoretical point of view, greater trade openness affects firm-level volatility by changing the exposure and the … link between openness and volatility. Using two novel datasets on German firms, we analyze the evolution of firm …-level output volatility and the link between volatility and trade openness. We find that firm-level output volatility displays …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003398412
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10002235381
We estimate the process underlying the pricing of American options by using higher-order lattices combined with a multigrid method. This paper also tests whether the risk-neutral densities given from American options provide a good forecasting tool. We use a nonparametric test of the densities...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003079170