Recent developments on international financial markets have called the benefits of bank globalization into question. Large, internationally active banks have acquired substantial market power, and international activities have not necessarily made banks less risky. Yet, surprisingly little is...

The interplay between banks and the macroeconomy is of key importance for financial and economic stability. We analyze this link using a factor-augmented vector autoregressive model (FAVAR) which extends a standard VAR for the U.S. macroeconomy. The model includes GDP growth, inflation, the...

Over the term of a securitization transaction, the concept of non-compliance allows a securitizing bank to classify a securitized loan as materially non-compliant with certain transaction requirements. Such a loan becomes unqualified for loss allocation. Therefore, non-compliant loans can...

We use a unique dataset of German banks’ exposure to interest rate risk to derive the following statements about their exposure to this risk and their earnings from term transformation. The systematic factor for the exposure to interest rate risk moves in sync with the shape of the term...

In this paper we stress-test credit portfolios of 28 German banks based on a Mertontype multi-factor credit risk model. The ad-hoc stress scenario is an economic downturn in the automobile industry that constitutes an exceptional but plausible event suggested by historical data. Rather than on a...

Size matters in banking. In this paper, we explore whether shocks originating at large banks affect the probability of distress of smaller banks and thus the stability of the banking system. Our analysis proceeds in two steps. In a first step, we follow Gabaix (2008a) and construct a measure of...

There is growing consensus that the conduct of monetary policy can have an impact on stability through the risk-taking incentives of banks. Falling interest rates might induce a “search for yield” and generate incentives to invest into risky activities. This paper provides evidence on the...

We put forward a Merton-type multi-factor portfolio model for assessing banks’ contributions to systemic risk. This model accounts for the major drivers of banks’ systemic relevance: size, default risk and correlation of banks’ assets as a proxy for interconnectedness. We measure systemic...

Banking supervision requires regular inspection and assessment of financial institutions. In Germany this task is carried out by the central bank (“Deutsche Bundesbank, BBK”) in cooperation with the Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (“Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht,...

Carrying out interbank contagion simulations for the German banking sector for the period from the first quarter of 2008 to the second quarter of 2011, we obtain the following results: (i) The system becomes less vulnerable to direct interbank contagion over time. (ii) The loss distribution for...