This paper compares the mixed-data sampling (MIDAS) and mixed-frequency VAR (MF-VAR) approaches to model speci.cation in the presence of mixed-frequency data, e.g., monthly and quarterly series. MIDAS leads to parsimonious models based on exponential lag polynomials for the coeØ cients, whereas...

This paper considers factor forecasting with national versus factor forecasting with international data. We forecast German GDP based on a large set of about 500 time series, consisting of German data as well as data from Euro-area and G7 countries. For factor estimation, we consider standard...

This paper analyses how many euro coins outflow from Germany and which composition of coins is to be expected in the long run. To this end, a simple mathematical model is formulated and calibrated for €1 coins. The introduction of the euro coins in 2002 presented a unique opportunity to...

Wholesale and retail trade affiliates owned by parent firms in manufacturing account for a considerable fraction of overall affiliate sales. Although quantitatively important, this Export-Supporting FDI (ESFDI) activity has received little attention in the literature. This paper includes ESFDI...

This paper addresses the relative importance of monetary indicators for forecasting inflation in the euro area in a Bayesian framework. Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA)based on predictive likelihoods provides a framework that allows for the estimation of inclusion probabilities of a particular...

The paper analyses the performance of simple interest rate rules which feature a response to noisy observations of inflation, output and money growth. The analysis is based on a small empirical model of the hybrid New Keynesian type which has been estimated on euro area data by Stracca (2007)....

This paper analyzes how bank lending to the private nonbank sector responds dynamically to aggregate supply, demand and monetary policy shocks in Germany and the euro area. The results suggest that the dynamic responses in the two areas are broadly similar, although there are some differences in...

The first part of this paper outlines the concept of democratic accountability of central banks, and compares the legal accountability of the ECB with some other central banks (Bank of Canada, Bank of Japan, Bank of England and the Federal Reserve System). In the second part, we present a theory...

The present paper uses survey data on expected consumer price developments to analyse the role of inflation expectations in the inflation process. The survey measures of price expectations are derived from the European Commission's Consumer Survey and from the surveys of professional experts...

In this paper, different Divisia monetary aggregates for the euro area are constructed over the period from 1980 to 2000. Theoretically, one main difference of these aggregates is their reaction to exchange-rate variations. Empirically, the aggregates are compared with respect to three issues....