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Evaluating the calibration of multi-step-ahead density forecasts using raw moments

Knüppel, Malte - 2011

The evaluation of multi-step-ahead density forecasts is complicated by the serial correlation of the corresponding probability integral transforms. In the literature, three testing approaches can be found which take this problem into account. However, these approaches can be computationally...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009424910

U-MIDAS: MIDAS regressions with unrestricted lag polynomials

Foroni, Claudia; Marcellino, Massimiliano; Schumacher, … - 2011

Mixed-data sampling (MIDAS) regressions allow to estimate dynamic equations that explain a low-frequency variable by high-frequency variables and their lags. When the difference in sampling frequencies between the regressand and the regressors is large, distributed lag functions are typically...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009490826

Concepts to calculate equilibrium exchange rates : an overview

MacDonald, Ronald - 2000

In this paper we present a critical overview of differnt methods of constructing an equilibrium exchange rate. The recent literature on purchasing power parity (PPP) indicates that on its own PPP is not a good vehicle for defining an equilibrium exchange rate. Rather, we argue that the latter...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011418788

Core inflation rates : a comparison of methods based on west German data

Landau, Bettina - 2000

procedure: statistical methods and methods based on economic theory. The latter include a new procedure which is based on the P …. Statistical core inflation rates perform relatively well, while core rates based on economic theory suffer, in particular, from a … der Basis der ökonomischen Theorie. Im Rahmen der letzteren wird auch ein neues Verfahren vorgestellt, das auf dem P …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011418839

Central bank accountability and transparency : theory and some evidence

Eijffinger, Sylvester C. W.; Hoeberichts, Marco - 2000

System). In the second part, we present a theory of central bank accountability. Two aspects of accountability are considered … Japan, Bank of England und Federal Reserve System). Im zweiten Teil stellen wir eine Theorie über die Rechenschaftspflicht …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011418852

Welfare effects of public information

Morris, Stephen; Shin, Hyun Song - 2000

What are the welfare effects of enhanced disclosures of public information - Is it always the case, that frequent and timely publication of economic statistics by government agencies and the central bank are desirable - This question has become one of several interlinked strands of debate on the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011418868

Expectations and the stability problem for optimal monetary policies

Evans, George W.; Honkapohja, Seppo - 2000

A fundamentals based monetary policy rule, which would be the optimal monetary policy without commitment when private agents have perfectly rational expectations, is unstable if in fact these agents follow standard adaptive learning rules. This problem can be overcome if private expectations are...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011418901

Unemployment, factor substitution, and capital formation

Kaas, Leo; Thadden, Leopold von - 2001

We incorporate a wage bargaining structure in a dynamic general equilibrium model and show how this feature changes short and long-run properties of equilibria compared with a perfectly competitive setting. We discuss how employment, capital, and income shares respond to wage setting shocks and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011419073

Should the individual voting records of central bankers be published?

Gersbach, Hans; Hahn, Volker - 2001

We examine whether it is socially beneficial for the individual voting records of central bank council members to be published when the general public is unsure about central bankers' efficiency and central bankers are aiming for re-election. We show that publication is initially harmful since...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011419080

Voting transparency and conflicting interests in central bank councils

Gersbach, Hans; Hahn, Volker - 2001

This paper examines whether it is socially desirable for the individual voting records of central bank council members to be published when central bankers' preferences differ. We show that the misrepresentation of their preferences is not advantageous for central bankers although central...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011419124