This paper studies the determinants of Austrian bilateral intra-firm trade in a panel of industry-level intra-firm goods trade flows. Economic size, unit labor costs and the magnification effects originating from multiple border crossing of sequentially finished products are found to be the most...

In the work of the Basel Committee there has been a tradition of distinguishing market from credit risk and to treat both categories independently in the calculation of risk capital. In practice positions in a portfolio depend simultaneously on both market and credit risk factors. In this case,...

Density forecasts have become quite important in economics and finance. For example, such forecasts play a central role in modern financial risk management techniques like Value at Risk. This paper suggests a regression based density forecast evaluation framework as a simple alternative to other...

The canonical New Keynesian model specifies inflation as the present-value of future real marginal cost. This paper tests this New Keynesian Phillips Curve and exploits projections of future real marginal cost generated by VAR models to assess the model’s ability to match the behavior of...

In this paper we rely on techniques recently developed by Bai and Ng (2004a) to estimate common euro-area stationary and non-stationary factors using a large-scale dynamic factor model. We find that euro-area economies share four non-stationary factors or trends and one stationary factor. By...

Fiscal rules, such as the excessive deficit procedure and the stability and growth pact (SGP), aim at constraining government behavior. Milesi-Ferretti (2003) develops a model in which governments circumvent such rules by reverting to creative accounting. The amount of this creative accounting...

This paper presents an estimated DSGE model for the European Monetary Union. Our approach, contrary to the previous studies, accounts for heterogeneity within the euro area. We advance the empirical literature by estimating an open-economy model with unfiltered data, which is a much more...

In this study we construct a measure of macroeconomic uncertainty from several observable economic indicators for the euro area. Indicator variables are based on financial market data, such as medium-term returns, loss and volatility measures but also come from surveys that capture business and...