Is time-varying firm-level uncertainty a major cause or amplifier of the business cycle? This paper investigates this question in the context of a heterogeneousfirm RBC model with persistent firm-level productivity shocks and lumpy capital adjustment, where cyclical changes in uncertainty...

Using a unique German firm-level data set, this paper is the first to jointly study the cyclical properties of the cross-sections of firm-level real value added and Solow residual innovations, as well as capital and employment adjustment. We find two new business cycle facts: 1) The...

This paper shows that the degree of competition affects the current account response to nominal shocks. The mechanism hinges on the relationship between the mark-up and the degree of real rigidity of prices. In a model with intermediate goods, the degree of real rigidity increases in the markup....

This paper analyzes the evolution of the degree of global cyclical interdependence over the period 1960-2005. We categorize the 106 countries in our sample into three groupsindustrial countries, emerging markets, and other developing economies. Using a dynamic factor model, we then decompose...

This paper provides evidence for a significant relation between international financial markets’ integration and output volatility. In the framework of a threshold model, it is shown empirically that this relation depends on country’s financial risk. Financial risk indicates a country’s...

The current crisis and discussions, in the euro area in particular, show that sovereign debt crises/defaults are no longer restricted to developing economies. After crises in many Latin American countries, the literature on quantitative dynamic macro-models of sovereign default has been...

After decades of steady liberalisation and financial market development, emerging capital markets experienced unparalleled capital inflows in the aftermath of the emerging markets crisis in the 1990s. This paper studies portfolio investment decisions of German banks in 30 emerging capital...

This paper examines the relationship between the exchange rate regime and the pace of current account adjustment. The panel data set we refer to includes 11 catching-up countries from central, eastern and south-eastern Europe between 1994 and 2007. The exchange rate regime is measured by a...

Our goal in this project is to gain a better empirical understanding of the international financial implications of currency movements. To this end, we construct a database of international currency exposures for a large panel of countries over 1990-2004. We show that trade-weighted exchange...

This paper aims to identify the determinants of portfolio restructuring in EMU member states since the introduction of the euro and especially during the financial turbulence of the past years. We find that, besides exchange rate volatility and traditional indicators of information and...