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have taken place. We test this unexplored implication of the theory empirically. We find in a world sample from 1970 to …We analyze the influence of IMF and World Bank programs on political regime transitions. We develop an extended version … transitions ; democracy ; autocracy ; IMF ; World Bank …
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the countries' authorities, openness, and transparency, consistently with the theory. -- IMF conditionality ; delegation …
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Accurate prediction of the frequency of extreme events is of primary importance in many financialapplications such as Value-at-Risk (VaR) analysis. We propose a semi-parametric method for VaRevaluation. The largest risks are modelled parametrically, while smaller risks are captured by the...
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In this paper we document that realized variation measures constructed from high-frequency returns reveal a large degree of volatility risk in stock and index returns, where we characterize volatility risk by the extent to which forecasting errors in realized volatility are substantive. Even...
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The typical identification strategy in aid effectiveness studies assumes donor motives do not influence the impact of aid on growth. We call this homogeneity assumption into question, first constructing a model in which donor motives matter and then testing the assumption empirically. -- Aid ;...
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