In this paper, we propose a novel consistent estimation method for the approximate factor model of Chamberlain and Rothschild (1983), with large cross-sectional and timeseries dimensions (N and T, respectively). Their model assumes that the r (fi N) largest eigenvalues of data covariance matrix...

This paper investigates the individual outcomes of irrational thinking, including paranormality and non-scientific thinking. These modes of thinking are identified by factor analysis from a 2008 survey. Income and happiness are used as measures of performance. Empirical results reveal that...

In this paper, we consider statistical inference for high-dimensional approximate factor models. We posit a weak factor structure, in which the factor loading matrix can be sparse and the signal eigenvalues may diverge more slowly than the cross-sectional dimension, N. We propose a novel...

This paper revisits the relationships among macroeconomic variables and asset returns. Based on recent developments in econometrics, we categorize competing models of asset returns into different "Equivalence Predictive Power Classes" (EPPC). During the pre-crisis period (1975-2005), some models...

This paper examines stationary and nonstationary time series by formally testing for the presence of unit roots and seasonal unit roots prior to estimation, model selection and forecasting. Various Box-Jenkins Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models are estimated over the period...

We offer a structural interpretation of survey measures of consumer confidence. Our approach is based on a simple forward-looking model of consumption. The model decomposes observed consumption uctuations in changes due to fundamentals, and changes due to temporary errors caused by noisy...

We investigate how individuals use measures of apparent predictability from price charts to predict future market prices. Subjects in our experiment predict both random walk times series, as in the seminal work by Bloomfield & Hales (2002) (BH), and stock price time series. We successfully...

We compare the performance of financial professionals (CFAs) with university students in four financial forecasting tasks ranging from simple lab prediction tasks to longitudinal field tasks. Although students and professionals performed similarly in the artificial forecasting tasks, their...

We examine whether inflation expectations obtained by open- and closed-ended questions lead to different inflation expectations through a randomized controlled trial. We find that different questionnaires measure significantly different inflation expectations, especially in the short term. We...

We experimentally investigated the relationship between participants' reliance on algorithms, their familiarity with the task, and the performance level of the algorithm. We found that when participants could freely decide on their final forecast after observing the one produced by the algorithm...