Showing 1 - 10 of 13
In this article, we study the point predictions that forecasters report when they are asked to predict the realisation of an iid random variable. We set up a laboratory experiment where the participants act as forecasters predicting the next realisation of random draws coming from different...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012115998
Survey questions that elicit point predictions regarding uncertain events face an important challenge as human forecasters use various statistics to summarise their subjective expectations. In this paper, we take up the challenge and study whether alternative formulations of the questions used...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012115999
, while heterogeneity in experience further affect risk taking through beliefs about individuals' own outcomes such as luck …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012419372
We study how subjects in an experiment use different forms of public information about their opponents' past behavior. In the absence of public information, subjects appear to use rather detailed statistics summarizing their private experiences. If they have additional public information, they...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011437784
-additive survival beliefs expressing ambiguity attitudes. We embed these neo-additive survival beliefs as decision weights in a Choquet … expected utility life-cycle consumption model and calibrate it with data on subjective survival beliefs from the Health and … Retirement Study. Our quantitative analysis shows that agents with calibrated neo-additive survival beliefs (i) save less than …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012061600
adopt a Bayesian learning model of ambiguous survival beliefs which replicates these patterns. The model is embedded within … survival beliefs (i) save less than originally planned, (ii) exhibit undersaving at younger ages, and (iii) hold larger amounts …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010419819
experimental evidence that beliefs about the duration of the stock market recovery shape households' expectations about their own …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012223788
Investors' return expectations are pivotal in stock markets, but the reasoning behind these expectations remains a black box for economists. This paper sheds light on economic agents' mental models - their subjective understanding - of the stock market, drawing on surveys with the US general...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014416010
This paper investigates beliefs in an ambiguous environment. In contrast to many previous studies, the beliefs … regarding possible scenarios are measured independently from attitudes. We use laboratory experiments to estimate the entire … distribution of subjective beliefs and examine how beliefs are updated, incorporating new information. We find that beliefs and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012432016
Decisions under ambiguity depend on the beliefs regarding possible scenarios and the attitude towards ambiguity. This … paper exclusively focuses on beliefs, and beliefs are measured independently from attitudes, in contrast to many previous … studies. We use laboratory experiments to estimate the subjective belief formation and belief updating process in an ambiguous …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012303335