Generalized additive models (GAM) for modelling nonlinear effects of continuous covariates are now well established tools for the applied statistician. In this paper we develop Bayesian GAM’s and extensions to generalized structured additive regression based on one or two dimensional P-splines...

Common approaches to monotonic regression focus on the case of a unidimensional covariate and continuous dependent variable. Here a general approach is proposed that allows for additive and multiplicative structures where one or more variables have monotone influence on the dependent variable....

In this paper we consider regression models for count data allowing for overdispersion in a Bayesian framework. Besides the inclusion of covariates, spatial effects are incorporated and modelled using a proper Gaussian conditional autoregressive prior based on Pettitt et al. (2002). Apart from...

In this paper we present a Gibbs sampler for a Poisson model including spatial effects. Frühwirth-Schnatter and Wagner (2004b) show that by data augmentation via the introduction of two sequences of latent variables a Poisson regression model can be transformed into a normal linear model. We...

Kalyanam and Shively (1998) and van Heerde et al. (2001) have proposed semiparametric models to estimate the influence of price promotions on brand sales, and both obtained superior performance for their models compared to strictly parametric modeling. Following these researchers, we suggest...

This paper aims at proposing suitable statistical tools to address heterogeneity in repeated measures, within a Multiple Sclerosis (MS) longitudinal study. Indeed, due to unobservable sources of heterogeneity, modelling the effect of covariates on MS severity evolves as a very difficult feature....

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a demyelinating disease of the central nervous system whose cause is still unknown. The disease course shows great inter- and intra-individual variability and this results in insecurity of diagnosis and prognosis. A well-founded knowledge of the natural history of MS,...

Parameter estimates of logistic and Cox regression models are biased for finite samples. In a simulation study we investigated for both models the behaviour of the bias in relation to sample size and further parameters. In the case of a dichotomous explanatory variable x the magnitude of the...

We describe a stochastic model based on a branching process for analyzing surveillance data of infectious diseases that allows to make forecasts of the future development of the epidemic. The model is based on a Poisson branching process with immigration with additional adjustment for possible...