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literature. In contrast, studies on relative location tend to be weakly linked to theory, but apply relatively sophisticated … appropriateness of such models, and identify areas of potential concern. The rather weak linkage between theory and operational models …
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area sovereign debt crises. We find that macro and default-specific world factors are a primary source of default …
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We develop a new targeted maximum likelihood estimation method that provides improved forecasting for misspecified linear autoregressive models. The method weighs data points in the observed sample and is useful in the presence of data generating processes featuring structural breaks, complex...
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