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~isPartOf:"Discussion paper / Tinbergen Institute"
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~isPartOf:"HWWA discussion paper"
~isPartOf:"Sveriges Riksbank working paper series"
~language:"eng"
~person:"Allen, David E."
~person:"Asai, Manabu"
~person:"Florax, Raymond J. G. M."
~person:"Gil-Alaña, Luis A."
~person:"Heckman, James J."
~person:"Koopman, Siem Jan"
~person:"Lucas, André"
~person:"McAleer, Michael"
~person:"Sluis, Pieter J. van der"
~person:"Teulings, Coen N."
~person:"Vries, Casper G. de"
~subject:"ARCH-Modell"
~subject:"Kreditrisiko"
~subject:"Maximum-Likelihood-Schätzung"
~subject:"Meta-Analyse"
~subject:"Prognoseverfahren"
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~subject:"United States"
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~subject:"Zustandsraummodell"
~type:"book"
~type_genre:"Collection of articles written by one author"
~type_genre:"Handbuch"
~type_genre:"Non-commercial literature"
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Allen, David E.
Asai, Manabu
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91
Low frequency and weighted likelihood solutions for mixed frequency dynamic factor models
Blasques, Francisco
;
Koopman, Siem Jan
;
Mallee, Max I. P.
-
2014
The multivariate analysis of a panel of economic and financial time series with mixed frequencies is a challenging problem. The standard solution is to analyze the mix of monthly and quarterly time series jointly by means of a multivariate dynamic model with a monthly time index: artificial...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010391543
Saved in:
92
Macro, industry and frailty effects in defaults : the 2008 credit crisis in perspective
Koopman, Siem Jan
;
Lucas, André
;
Schwaab, Bernd
-
2010
We determine the magnitude and nature of systematic default risk using 1971{2009) default data from Moody's. We disentangle systematic risk factors due to business cycle effects, common default dynamics (frailty), and industry-specific dynamics (including contagion). To quantify the contribution...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011379607
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93
World
equity premium based risk aversion estimates
Pozzi, Lorenzo
;
Vries, Casper G. de
;
Zenhorst, J.
-
2010
confidence band for the
world
risk aversion estimate from the pooled country data is much tighter and the pooled point estimate …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011379612
Saved in:
94
Models with time-varying mean and variance : a robust analysis of US industrial production
Bos, Charles S.
;
Koopman, Siem Jan
-
2010
Many seasonal macroeconomic time series are subject to changes in their means and variances over a long time horizon. In this paper we propose a general treatment for the modelling of time-varying features in economic time series. We show that time series models with mean and variance functions...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011379641
Saved in:
95
Modeling trigonometric seasonal components for monthly economic time series
Hindrayanto, Irma
;
Aston, John A.D.
;
Koopman, Siem Jan
; …
-
2010
The basic structural time series model has been designed for the modelling and forecasting of seasonal economic time series. In this paper we explore a generalisation of the basic structural time series model in which the time-varying trigonometric terms associated with different seasonal...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011379642
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96
A dynamic multivariate heavy-tailed model for time-varying volatilities and correlations
Creal, Drew
;
Koopman, Siem Jan
;
Lucas, André
-
2010
We propose a new class of observation-driven time-varying parameter models for dynamic volatilities and correlations to handle time series from heavy-tailed distributions. The model adopts generalized autoregressive score dynamics to obtain a time-varying covariance matrix of the multivariate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011380135
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97
Systemic risk diagnostics
Schwaab, Bernd
;
Lucas, André
;
Koopman, Siem Jan
-
2010
, and the rest of the
world
. Controlling for global,region-specific, and industry effects, we construct coincident measures …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011382067
Saved in:
98
Observation driven mixed-measurement dynamic factor models with an application to credit risk
Creal, Drew
;
Schwaab, Bernd
;
Koopman, Siem Jan
;
Lucas, …
-
2011
This paper has been accepted for publication in the 'Review of Economics and Statistics'.We propose a dynamic factor model for mixed-measurement and mixed-frequency panel data. In this framework time series observations may come from a range of families of parametric distributions, may be...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011383248
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99
Numerically accelerated importance sampling for nonlinear non-Gaussian state space models
Koopman, Siem Jan
;
Lucas, André
;
Scharth, Marcel
-
2012
We introduce a new efficient importance sampler for nonlinear non-Gaussian state space models. We propose a general and efficient likelihood evaluation method for this class of models via the combination of numerical and Monte Carlo integration methods. Our methodology explores the idea that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011386179
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100
Modeling dynamic volatilities and correlations under skewness and fat tails
Zhang, Xin
;
Creal, Drew
;
Koopman, Siem Jan
;
Lucas, André
-
2011
We propose a new model for dynamic volatilities and correlations of skewed and heavy-tailed data. Our model endows the Generalized Hyperbolic distribution with time-varying parameters driven by the score of the observation density function. The key novelty in our approach is the fact that the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011386468
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