We empirically evaluate a behavioural model with boundedly rational traders who disagree about the persistence of deviations from the fundamental stock price. Fundamentalist traders believe in mean-reversion, while chartists extrapolate trends. Agents gradually switch between the two rules,...

Recent work on complex adaptive systems for modeling financialmarkets is surveyed. Financia1 markets areviewed as evolutionary systems between different, competing tradingstrategies. Agents are boundedly rational inthe sense that they tend to follow strategies that have performedwell, according...

A simple asset pricing model with two types of adaptively learning traders,fundamentalists and technical analysts, is studied. Fractions of these tradertypes, which are both boundedly rational, change over time according toevolutionary learning, with technical analysts conditioning their...

It is commonly argued that crises open up a window of opportunity to implement policies that otherwise would not have the necessary political backing. The argument goes that the political cost of deep reforms declines as crises unravel structural problems that need to be urgently rectified and...