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Forecasting the world economy in the short-term

Jakaitiene, Audrone; Dées, Stéphane - 2009

Forecasting the world economy is a difficult task given the complex interrelationships within and across countries …. This paper proposes a number of approaches to forecast short-term changes in selected world economic variables and aims …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003867019

The role of the United States in the global economy and its evolution over time

Dées, Stéphane; Saint-Guilhem, Arthur - 2009

to the rest of the world tends to fluctuate over time but remains large overall. Second, although the size of the … more persistent. Actually, the increasing economic integration at the world level is likely to have fostered second …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003832378

Supply, demand and monetary policy shocks in a multi-country New Keynesian Model

Dées, Stéphane; Pesaran, M. Hashem; Smith, L. Vanessa - 2010

countryspecific foreign output variable to capture direct inter-country linkages. In accord with the theory all variables are measured … restrictions implied by the NK theory. The multi-country DSGE NK model is then solved to provide estimates of identified supply …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008657123

The transmission of US cyclical developments to the rest of the world

Dées, Stéphane (contributor); … - 2007

of the world. Overall we find that while US economic developments would indeed affect the rest of the world, developments …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003599254

Exploring the international linkages of the euro area : a global VAR analysis

Dées, Stéphane; Di Mauro, Filippo; Pesaran, M. Hashem; … - 2005

This paper presents a quarterly global model linking individual country vector errorcorrecting models in which the domestic variables are related to the country-specific foreign variables. The global VAR (GVAR) model is estimated for 26 countries, the euro area being treated as a single economy,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003230466

Identification of new Keynesian Phillips Curves from a global perspective

Dées, Stéphane; Pesaran, M. Hashem; Smith, L. Vanessa; … - 2008

number of issues of concern about how they are estimated and then related to the underlying macroeconomic theory. The first …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003778781

Forecasting world trade : direct versus "bottom-up" approaches

Burgert, Matthias (contributor); … - 2008

In a globalised world economy, global factors have become increasingly important to explain trade flows at the expense … world trade is directly forecasted at the aggregate levels, relative to "bottom-up" approaches, where world trade results …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003749950