To gain insights in the current status of the economy, macroeconomic time series are often decomposed into trend, cycle and irregular components. This can be done by nonparametric band-pass filtering methods in the frequency domain or by model-based decompositions based on autoregressive moving...

We investigate high-frequency volatility models for analyzing intra-day tick by tick stock price changes using Bayesian estimation procedures. Our key interest is the extraction of intra-day volatility patterns from high-frequency integer price changes. We account for the discrete nature of the...

We adopt an unobserved components time series model to extract financial cycles for the United States and the five largest euro area countries over the period 1970 to 2014. We find that credit, the credit-to-GDP ratio and house prices have medium-term cycles which share a few common statistical...

This paper introduces a new solution method for Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models that produces non explosive paths. The proposed solution method is as fast as standard perturbation methods and can be easily implemented in existing software packages like Dynare as it is...

Tradable credit schemes offer a potentially efficient, revenue-neutral policy alternative to classical dynamic pricing of congestion externalities. We show in this paper that the resulting equilibrium may not be unique for particular models of congestion, including the first-best solution for...

We present an accurate and efficient method for Bayesian forecasting of two financial risk measures, Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall, for a given volatility model. We obtain precise forecasts of the tail of the distribution of returns not only for the 10-days-ahead horizon required by the...

We investigate the impacts of in-vehicle activities of commuters in the autonomous car on aggregate travel patterns. We allow for an autonomous car to affect the utility difference between being at home and being in the vehicle differently than the utility difference between being at work and...

Asset-based lending, the supply of loans based on floating collateral, is an important source of funding for small firms. We analyze the effect of competition on asset-based loan markets on interest rate distributions and the mobility of small firms. Close monitoring of collateral by lenders...

We study different mixes of private and public supply of roads in a network with bottleneck congestion and heterogeneous users. In our setting, there are two parallel links for one origin and destination pair and two groups of travellers, where the group with higher value of time also has higher...

We introduce a dynamic network model with probabilistic link functions that depend on stochastically time-varying parameters. We adopt the widely used blockmodel framework and allow the high-dimensional vector of link probabilities to be a function of a low-dimensional set of dynamic factors....