This paper proposes a parsimoniously time varying parameter vector autoregressive model (with exogenous variables, VARX) and studies the properties of the Lasso and adaptive Lasso as estimators of this model. The parameters of the model are assumed to follow parsimonious random walks, where...

Many empirical studies have shown that factor models produce relatively accurate forecasts compared to alternative short-term forecasting models. These empirical findings have been established for different macroeconomic data sets and different forecast horizons. However, various specifications...

Can fixed exchange rate regimes cause output divergence among member states? We show that such divergence is a long-run equilibrium characteristic of a two-region model with fixed exchange rates, heterogeneous labor markets, and endogenous growth. Under flexible exchange rates, monetary policy...

Time varying patterns in US growth are analyzed using various univariate model structures, starting from a naive model structure where all features change every period to a model where the slow variation in the conditional mean and changes in the conditional variance are specified together with...

We present a multi-country theory of economic growth in which countries are connected by a network of mutual knowledge exchange. Growth is generated through human capital accumulation and knowledge externalities. The available knowledge in any country depends on its connections to the rest of...

This paper investigates the extent of pass-through from the nominal exchange rate to import prices for a sample of nineteen African countries. The methodology is based on panel data cointegration testing. Using annual data extending back to 1971, long-run pass-through can be best described as a...

A four-dimensional Structural Vector Auto-regression (SVAR) model is applied to investigate the implications of fuel imports and devaluation policy on Fiji's current account deficits and economic growth. The paper finds that short-term deterioration of the current account is partly due to higher...

We introduce a new estimation framework which extends the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) to settings where a subset of the parameters vary over time with unknown dynamics. To filter out the dynamic path of the time-varying parameter, we approximate the dynamics by an autoregressive process...

We present a model for hourly electricity load forecasting based on stochastically time-varying processes that are designed to account for changes in customer behaviour and in utility production efficiencies. The model is periodic: it consists of different equations and different parameters for...