A new empirical reduced-form model for credit rating transitions is introduced. It is a parametric intensity-based duration model with multiple states and driven by exogenous covariates and latent dynamic factors. The model has a generalized semi-Markov structure designed to accommodate many of...

We study the relation between the credit cycle and macro-economic fundamentals in an intensity-based framework. Using rating transition and default data of U.S. corporates from Standard and Poor’s over the period 1980-2005 we directly estimate the credit cycle from the micro rating data. We...

In this paper we examine the effect of collateral requirements on the prices of long- lived assets. We consider a Lucas-style infinite-horizon exchange economy with hetero- geneous agents and collateral constraints. There are two trees in the economy which can be used as collateral for...

The paper examines a game-theoretic model of a financial market in which asset prices are determined endogenously in terms of short-run equilibrium. Investors use general, adaptive strategies depending on the exogenous states of the world and the observed history of the game. The main goal is to...

In this paper we consider a canonical stochastic overlapping generations economy with sequentially complete markets. We examine how aggregate and individual shocks translate to changes in the distribution of wealth and how these movements in the wealth distribution affect asset prices and the...