parameters. When the forecasting model admits only normally-distributed outcomes, we find small, acyclical changes in uncertainty …

short-term forecasting models. These empirical findings have been established for different macroeconomic data sets and … specification is most effective in its forecasting performance. Furthermore, the forecast performances of the different … extended empirical out-of-sample forecasting competition for quarterly growth of gross domestic product in the euro area and …

-of-sample predictions and forecasting. We identify economic drivers of our machine learning models using a novel framework based on Shapley …